Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Bush Signs Landmark Energy Bill Into Law

12/19/2007 11:30:45 AM President Bush signed into law on Wednesday legislation that will set higher fuel economy standards for cars and light trucks and phase out the use of incandescent light bulbs.

The legislation is “a major step toward reducing our dependence on oil, confronting global climate change, expanding the production of renewable fuels and giving future generations of our country a nation that is stronger, cleaner and more secure,” Bush at a ceremony at the Department of Energy in Washington.

The bill was roundly passed by the House on Tuesday by a vote of 314 to 100. It marks the first time fuel economy standards have been updated by law since 1975, and will require vehicles to average 35 miles per gallon by 2020. In addition, the annual production of renewable fuels will be upped fivefold to 36 billion gallons by 2022.

According to the Renewable Fuels Association, an organization that lobbies for distillers of alternative fuels like ethanol, by 2022 36-billion-gallon annual production will represent a sixth of overall fuel consumption.

“At that level of consumption, 36 billion gallons of renewable fuels will effectively drive us through the months of January and February,” the group said in a statement. “No oil 'til March.”

The legislation, known as the Energy Independence and Security Act, was hailed by Bush as an important step in curing the United States' “addiction to oil,” an issue he gave large attention to in his 2007 State of the Union.

Incandescent light bulbs will likely be eliminated within the next 10 years, according to measures in the legislation. The law also requires reduced energy use by several appliances, including dishwashers, washing machines, and walk-in coolers and freezers.

The bill has been praised by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) as groundbreaking.

“You are present at a moment of change, of real change,” she said before Tuesday's House vote.

However, critics counter that it will increase automobile costs and potentially compromise safety. Also, the efficiency of ethanol has been questioned recently, and has the potential to raise prices of corn and grain. The bill has also been criticized by some Democrats and environmental groups as too watered down. Bush had threatened to veto a bill that would have required utilities to utilize renewable sources like wind and solar energy for power and would have been funded by higher taxes on oil companies.

Monday, September 10, 2007

Wanna be a FOREX Trader?

Forex Articles!

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Wednesday, September 5, 2007

Tsunami

The Tsunami, I call it the Tsunami, you’ll get the reason later on. First of all, I want to talk about the money changers, what they do is – they land you money, when Interest Rates are very low and they create an environment for you to lend money, because it’s easy money, easy to pay back, it’s normally when the economy of the country is really having a good time, and everybody is buying new cars, and new houses, and go on holidays and things like that. Then, at the certain stage there is too much money floating around, so now they’ve got to do something to stop that, people are lending are all over the place. And things don’t balance any more, the one side gets heavier than the other side and then they decide to raise the Interest Rates. Then they start collecting from you. And if your budget was not very nice, you either have to give back your car, or give back your house. And that’s what they do. They create a playing field, where they lend out money, but the reasons for them is to make money.

I want to show something, that I’ll do by illustration, by explaining how I see this. Now, who are the money changers? I call the “the big ones” “the big guys”. I haven’t met one of them yet, I don’t know who they are, fund managers, governments, banks, I don’t know. But somehow, at certain stages they create a sort of environment; I call it “the playing field” in the Forex market. At this specific point you’ll remember, if you go back saying in a year, two or three from now, or even ten years from now, and you take the exact date, today, and you’ll take three weeks back, you’ll see the past three week have been difficult. If you look at the Euro, if you look at the British pound, you’ll see there are a lot of ups and down. That’s “playing field”, there is a lot of emotion going on, there’s a lot of movement going on, but it goes nowhere.

Now, it’s like sitting on a beach, you see people running all over, I can not run after every one, that come run past me. Because he might just play with a ball, it might be just someone running past, so if I get up and run after everyone I am gonna be tired by the end of the day. So, what do I do? I can sit there and I can put on my dark glasses, put on my suntan lotion, and forget about everything. But by doing that the Tsunami might hit me, and I won’t even know that. So, what do I really look for? I look for an unease or a pattern of movement that’s not a part of a playing on the beach. You’ll start to realize, well, people are not playing anymore now, there are some people running toward the gates, so there is something going on. You don’t know what yet, so what do you do? There are basically three things that you can do. You can totally ignore it, as I said put on your sun glasses, and be hit by tsunami. Or, what most of us do, we get up and we appoint a commissioner, of commission, couple of people that must go and find out, why are those people running. And you get yourself deep in to the fundamentals, and you start reading here, and you start reading there, and by the time you figure out: “Oh, it’s a Tsunami”, and you got hit by it. Then it’s too late. That’s a second part.

But, there’s a third part as well, you can run with the people running. And why you running with them, you can ask: “Why are we running?” And you’ll get an answer, if they can’t answer you, at least, you have a choice to decide, I’ll stay with it until it stops, and that is what market is doing. When it runs, you’ve got to be in it. Sometimes you know it’s news, sometimes you know it’s this and that, but sometimes you don’t, as long as you are there. But now comes the main part, you must desern, I’m using the word desern, because desern - is a separation. First of all, you’ve got to recognize, when it’s playing time, like we had now these last three weeks. It was playing time and then, the next step is you’ve got to desern, when the informed are leaving the playground. When those money changers, when they start moving. You’ve got to desern it, it’s a separation, technically, you’ve got to see the emotions on the faces if you are on the beach, they serious. And then you must desern when the playing is about to end. You know it’s gonna end, but you don’t know when. And then I‘ve got this last on B1 of the followers, of the informed. There are people that are informed in this whole playing scenario. And you’ve got to know the motion of the market in terms of its movement, because price is moved by people, by decisions of people. And their decisions make the market run, and why is it running – you don’t know yet, but you have recognized, that playing time, the playing field – is about over. The end is about there, but you don’t know exactly when. And that is what MACD system sort of tells you. Gives you an early indication when playing time is over. And when it runs you’ve got to be on board. That’s very important. And then when it runs it’s got a certain emotion, you just happen to be in that flow, you run with it, because if they want to take you out, they must take themselves out, but they not gonna do that, so you’ve got to be in that flow all the time. And that’s what I’m gonna teach you as well later on. Is to know the market rhythm, and to know when the market is moving, in a certain patter, in a certain rhythm, to stay with it as long as possible. So, remember to desern when the move is on.

Source: (Phillip Nell)Profesional MACD Guru.

Saturday, September 1, 2007

Moving Average Conversion Diversion Review

Saturday, September 01, 2007

Trading The MACD Divergence

Moving average convergence divergence (MACD), invented in 1979 by Gerald Appel, is one of the most popular technical indicators in trading. MACD is appreciated by traders the world over for its simplicity and flexibility because it can be used either as a trend or momentum indicator.


Trading divergence is a popular way to use MACD histogram (which we explain below), but, unfortunately, the divergence trade is not very accurate - it fails more than it succeeds. To explore what may be a more logical method of trading MACD divergence, we look at using the MACD histogram for both trade-entry and trade-exit signals (instead of only entry), and how currency traders are uniquely positioned to take advantage of such a strategy.

MACD: An Overview
The concept behind MACD is fairly straightforward. Essentially it calculates the difference between an instrument's 26-day and 12-day exponential moving average (EMA). Of the two moving averages that make up MACD, the 12-day EMA is obviously the faster and the 26-day is the slower. In the calculation of their value, both moving averages use the closing prices of whatever period is measured. On the MACD chart, a 9-day EMA of MACD itself is plotted as well, and it acts as a trigger for buy and sell decisions. MACD generates a bullish signal when it moves above its own 9-day EMA, and it sends a sell sign when it moves below its 9-day EMA.

The MACD histogram is an elegant visual representation of the difference between MACD and its 9-day EMA. The histogram is positive when MACD is above its 9-day EMA and negative when MACD is below its 9-day EMA. If prices are rising, the histogram grows larger as the speed of the price movement accelerates and contracts as price movement decelerates. The same principle works in reverse as prices are falling. See Figure 1 for a good example of a MACD histogram in action.


Figure 1 - The above is an example of MACD histogram. Note that as price action (top part of the screen) accelerates to the downside, the MACD histogram (in the lower part of the screen) makes new lows and vice versa as prices turn.

As it responds to the speed of price movement, the MACD histogram is the main reason why so many traders rely on this indicator to measure momentum. Indeed, most traders use the MACD indicator more frequently to gauge the strength of the price move than to determine the direction of a trend.

Trading Divergence
As we mentioned earlier, trading divergence is a classic way in which the MACD histogram is used. One of the most common set-ups is to find chart points at which price makes a new swing high or a new swing low but the MACD histogram does not, indicating a divergence between price and momentum. Figure 2 illustrates a typical divergence trade.


Figure 2 - Here is a typical (negative) divergence trade using a MACD histogram. At the right-hand circle on the price chart, the price movements make a new swing high, but at the corresponding circled point on the MACD histogram, the MACD histogram is unable to exceed its previous high of 0.3307. (The histogram reached this high at the point indicated by the lower left-hand circle.) The divergence is a signal that the price is about to reverse at the new high, and as such, it is a signal for the trader to enter into a short position.

Unfortunately, the divergence trade is not very accurate - it fails more times than it succeeds. Prices frequently have several final bursts up or down that trigger stops and force traders out of position just before the move actually makes a sustained turn and the trade becomes profitable. Figure 3 demonstrates a typical divergence fakeout, which has frustrated scores of traders over the years.


Figure 3 - A typical divergence fakeout. Strong divergence is illustrated by the right circle (at the bottom of the chart) by the vertical line, but traders who set their stops at swing highs would have been taken out of the trade before it turned in their direction.

One of the reasons that traders often lose with this set up is they enter a trade on a signal from the MACD indicator but exit it based on the move in price. Since the MACD histogram is a derivative of price and is not price itself, this approach is in effect the trading version of mixing apples and oranges.

Using the MACD Histogram for Both Entry and Exit
To resolve the inconsistency between entry and exit, a trader can use the MACD histogram for both trade-entry and trade-exit signals. To do so, the trader trading the negative divergence takes a partial short position at the initial point of divergence, but instead of setting the stop at the nearest swing high based on price, s/he instead stops out the trade only if the high of the MACD histogram exceeds its previous swing high, indicating that momentum is actually accelerating and the trader is truly wrong on the trade. If, on the other hand, the MACD histogram does not generate a new swing high, the trader then adds to his or her initial position, continually achieving a higher average price for his or her short.

Currency traders are uniquely positioned to take advantage of this strategy because with this strategy, the larger the position, the larger potential gains once the price reverses - and in FX, you can implement this strategy with any size of position and not have to worry about influencing price. (Traders can execute transactions as large as 100,000 units or as little as 1,000 units for the same typical spread of three to five points in the major pairs.)

In effect, this strategy requires the trader to average up as prices temporarily move against him or her. This, however, is typically not considered a good strategy. Many trading books have derisively dubbed such a technique as "adding to your losers". However, in this case the trader has a logical reason for doing so - the MACD histogram has shown divergence, which indicates that momentum is waning and price may soon turn. In effect, the trader is trying to call the bluff between the seeming strength of immediate price action and MACD readings that hint at weakness ahead. Still, a well-prepared trader using the advantages of fixed costs in FX, by properly averaging up the trade, can withstand the temporary drawdowns until price turns in his or her favor. Figure 4 illustrates this strategy in action.


Figure 4 - The chart indicates where price makes successive highs but the MACD histogram does not - foreshadowing the decline that eventually comes. By averaging up his or her short, the trader eventually earns a handsome profit as we see the price making a sustained reversal after the final point of divergence.

Conclusion
Like life, trading is rarely black and white. Some rules that traders agree on blindly, such as never adding to a loser, can be successfully broken to achieve extraordinary profits. However, a logical, methodical approach for violating these important money management rules needs to be established before attempting to capture gains. In the case of the MACD histogram, trading the indicator instead of the price offers a new way to trade an old idea - divergence. Applying this method to the FX market, which allows effortless scaling up of positions, makes this idea even more intriguing to day traders and position traders alike.

By Boris Schlossberg, Senior Currency Strategist, FXCM

** This article and more are available at Investopedia.com - Your Source for Investing Education **

Words Of Wisdom

Jacko's Words of Wisdom

Why do I trade Forex?

Because I am ABSOLUTELY CONVINCED that this is the best "business" in the world.

There are:

no rent of offices (that is, NO dealing with Realtors, Lawyers, and government

departments...man, what a pain in the ass). Also no office fit-out costs

no staff, (man, unless you have had large numbers of staff depending on YOU for their

paypacket each week, you cannot know what a huge pain in the ass it is. They ALL want you to

solve their problems)

No inventory or stock to buy. No shrinkage (theft of stock) and no "slow moving" items. No

massive amount of funds tied up in inventory

You can "borrow" as much as you want (by increasing your leverage), WHENEVER you want.

(Try running a big business and going to the bank for a short term loan for $10 mill...it will take

a month minimum). I am trading $10-12 mill all the time and I get it instantly through the

brokers by the use of leverage.

If the business becomes a hassle for whatever reason, you can shut it down (that is, close all

positions) instantly...and re-open (initiate new positions) whenever YOU want to re-open your

"business."

You can "scale" your business to whatever size YOU want simply by increasing/decreasing

your positions.

Absolutely minimal paperwork. Simply send your 12 month summary Profit and Loss

Statement to your Financial Accountant for tax payment purposes.

You can trade from anywhere in the world. My wife and I travel most of the year. (take your

laptop or PDA or whatever else they will come up with and trade while sipping a nice drink as

close by as your local cafe or as far as some open air cafe in some remote little town in beautiful

Italy while you watch a bocce match at the park.)

I could keep telling you more of the benefits of this business, but suffice to say...this is the best

"business" in the world. I run a multi-multimillion dollar business from my laptop.

And did I mention that it was exciting and fun????





source: mr.jacko. profesional trader